Pre­dic­tive bat­tery ana­lyt­ics in the ener­gy sector

Bat­tery stor­age is an ele­men­tary com­po­nent of the ener­gy sec­tor. How­ev­er, they are com­plex sys­tems that require spe­cial atten­tion. The over­rid­ing goal of many oper­a­tors is there­fore to max­i­mize the prof­it pos­si­ble from stor­age with­out tak­ing on addi­tion­al risk. This is where bat­tery ana­lyt­ics can help.

Today, more than 25 GWh of sta­tion­ary bat­tery stor­age sys­tems have already been installed world­wide. It is esti­mat­ed that installed capac­i­ty will grow to up to 900 GWh by 2030. Bat­tery stor­age is ide­al­ly suit­ed to meet the chal­lenges of the ener­gy tran­si­tion for a num­ber of rea­sons. Unlike most oth­er pow­er plant tech­nolo­gies, bat­tery stor­age sys­tems can not only deliv­er ener­gy, but also store it. And all this in a unique reac­tion time of only a few mil­lisec­onds. These prop­er­ties are not only the­o­ret­i­cal­ly suit­able for numer­ous use cas­es, both front-of-the-meter and behind-the-meter.

In prac­tice, how­ev­er, in addi­tion to the still high acqui­si­tion costs, numer­ous new chal­lenges arise due to the com­plex­i­ty of bat­ter­ies and their aging behav­ior. Three of these chal­lenges are the increas­ing com­plex­i­ty due to mul­ti-use appli­ca­tions, war­ran­ty man­age­ment and bat­tery over­siz­ing. It is pre­cise­ly these dif­fi­cul­ties that can be addressed by bat­tery ana­lyt­ics — mak­ing bat­tery stor­age an even more attrac­tive technology.

Marktübersicht stationäre Energiespeicher


Low prof­itabil­i­ty and long pay­back peri­od — mul­ti-use appli­ca­tions are key
The low prof­itabil­i­ty and long pay­back peri­od of bat­tery stor­age are two of the fun­da­men­tal chal­lenges fac­ing oper­a­tors. High acqui­si­tion costs and fluc­tu­at­ing ener­gy prices that are dif­fi­cult to fore­cast, com­ple­ment­ed by falling prices on the pri­ma­ry con­trol reserve mar­ket in recent years, make the issue explo­sive. It is clear to many oper­a­tors: with­out mul­ti-use appli­ca­tions it will not work.

In par­tic­u­lar, the com­plex age­ing behav­iour of bat­ter­ies makes it dif­fi­cult to opti­mise the most prof­itable oper­at­ing strat­e­gy across dif­fer­ent uses. Many oper­a­tors there­fore either shy away from mul­ti-use appli­ca­tions or oper­ate mul­ti-use, but with­out being aware of the aging costs. Con­tin­ued use of the TWAICE Oper­at­ing Strat­e­gy Plan­ner solu­tion can add val­ue to the cus­tomer in a num­ber of ways.

Tak­ing bat­tery aging into account in oper­a­tional strat­e­gy plan­ning helps the oper­a­tor to bet­ter bal­ance between dif­fer­ent strate­gies and sched­ules. This allows them to choose the opti­mal oper­at­ing strat­e­gy for their busi­ness case between expect­ed rev­enue and bat­tery life.

For dif­fer­ent oper­at­ing modes, the oper­a­tor can direct­ly incor­po­rate an esti­mate of the aging cost per cycle and ener­gy quan­ti­ty into his mar­ket-side opti­miza­tion and pric­ing. This makes it eas­i­er to iden­ti­fy prof­itable trans­ac­tions and increase the prof­itabil­i­ty of dif­fer­ent types of oper­a­tions such as intra­day trad­ing or pri­ma­ry con­trol power.
In addi­tion, the oper­a­tor receives the secu­ri­ty of being able to use the stor­age for the select­ed strat­e­gy for the planned peri­od of time — the risk of pre­ma­ture stor­age fail­ure can thus be minimized.

More effi­cient war­ran­ty man­age­ment through bat­tery analytics

Inte­gra­tors have the task of hav­ing to bun­dle a large num­ber of sup­pli­er guar­an­tees into one sys­tem guar­an­tee for the end cus­tomer. This is not only in the form of a con­ven­tion­al prod­uct guar­an­tee (the stor­age unit no longer func­tions), but usu­al­ly also in the form of a per­for­mance guar­an­tee (the stor­age unit deliv­ers a cer­tain per­for­mance over a cer­tain peri­od of time, for exam­ple it still has at least 80% of the State of Health after ten years [SoH]). In the event of dam­age, bat­tery ana­lyt­ics pro­vide the inte­gra­tor with all the nec­es­sary data at the touch of a but­ton, enabling him to process the dam­age effi­cient­ly, min­imise risks and thus save money.

Stor­age oper­a­tors also have the option of set­ting warn­ings to pre­vent oper­a­tion of the bat­tery stor­age out­side the war­ran­ty con­di­tions or fun­da­men­tal­ly harm­ful han­dling. For exam­ple, par­tic­u­lar­ly high tem­per­a­tures, par­tic­u­lar­ly many cycles, but also cer­tain dis­charge depths can be avoided.
As a provider of pre­dic­tive bat­tery ana­lyt­ics, TWAICE cre­ates trust as a neu­tral author­i­ty and thus the nec­es­sary basis for part­ner­ships with Munich Re on insur­ance ser­vices and TÜV on resid­ual val­ue determinations.

Over­siz­ing of bat­ter­ies and resource-inten­sive devel­op­ment — opti­miz­ing stor­age with sim­u­la­tion models

How­ev­er, there is poten­tial for opti­mi­sa­tion not only in oper­a­tion, but already in devel­op­ment. The key­word over­siz­ing is prob­a­bly known to every bat­tery engi­neer. In order to ensure that the bat­ter­ies deliv­er the agreed pow­er over the entire ser­vice life, the stor­age units are designed to be larg­er than actu­al­ly nec­es­sary due to the expect­ed age­ing or the asso­ci­at­ed — but unpre­dictable — loss of capac­i­ty. Com­bined with resource-inten­sive devel­op­ment, over­siz­ing leads to bat­tery devel­op­ment that is more cost­ly than it should be.

Bat­tery sim­u­la­tion mod­els, such as those con­tained in the TWAICE Bat­tery Mod­el Library, are ide­al­ly suit­ed for opti­mal­ly design­ing stor­age sys­tems depend­ing on the load pro­file, per­for­mance and stor­age capac­i­ty. In this way, the cost of cap­i­tal can be sig­nif­i­cant­ly reduced. Bat­tery ana­lyt­ics and stress fac­tor analy­sis can be used to close­ly mon­i­tor stor­age devices that are already in use. Con­clu­sions from the analy­ses help oper­a­tors to design the next gen­er­a­tion of stor­age sys­tems even better.

The future of the ener­gy sec­tor is now incon­ceiv­able with­out bat­ter­ies. Although they are com­plex, they do not have to rep­re­sent non-trans­par­ent risks. With the help of holis­tic bat­tery ana­lyt­ics, play­ers along the val­ue chain — oper­a­tors, own­ers and project devel­op­ers of bat­tery stor­age sys­tems — can meet their chal­lenges and opti­mal­ly design and oper­ate the stor­age sys­tems, there­by gen­er­at­ing the max­i­mum yield from the stor­age systems.